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Amazing!!! Thanks to www.advancednflstats.com for doing all the leg-work. Highly recommend their site too. Their in-game win probability statistics are always a must-have for me on game-day ^_^

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I really like his 4th Down analysis:

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-...

The tl;dr version can be found at:

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/05/4th-down-briefs.html

The conclusion is that teams should go for it on 4th down much more often than they currently do.

He also has a calculator where you can get the exact values:

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/4thdncalc1.php

The Patriots have used this analysis:

http://www.math.toronto.edu/mpugh/Teaching/Sci199_03/Footbal...

I also believe Belichek/Adams have funded some football economics research.

Could just be my imagination, but I felt like this season I saw many more teams go for it on 4th down (maybe some of this data can prove or disprove that?). Perhaps the impact of the above, or similar, analyses is finally being seen.

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