[1]: https://www.electronicdesign.com/technologies/embedded/artic...
[2]: https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-supplier-sk-hynix-...
[3]: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.24616
[4]: https://www.apollo.com/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/No...
[1]: https://www.electronicdesign.com/technologies/embedded/artic...
[2]: https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-supplier-sk-hynix-...
[3]: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.24616
[4]: https://www.apollo.com/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/No...
Remember too that these models only really became useful less than a year ago with Opus 4.6 being an inflection point. It takes a long time for the economy to reorganize itself so it's not surprising we're not immediately seeing the payoff in economic data.
I can't imagine it can even feel productive to anyone, unless you use agents to automate re-rolling your slop machines, but then you're just going to end up with an unmaintainable ball of mud. Either way, it's definitely net negative.
Kind of same outcome as if you just generated lots and lots of random code (perhaps at AST level; but don't tell your Claude, that'd trick it into making itself obsolete tech!) and compiled it in parallel till it passed tests, but this time around, the computer also tells you that you hit the nail on its head, that you're totally right <s>and that you're such a good puppy. agent uses tool `clicker`</s>
Update your priors.
Also, is “update your priors” some slang for “tell your parents”…? In that case, I can only say older folks are especially vulnerable to slop and I can’t imagine my parents would benefit from that tech.
Anyway, legitimate uses for chatbots are extremely niche, to the point I can’t really name even one such use…
> I can’t see how it’s productive to sustain a forever-junior?
Well, I've met enough developers throughout my career that were successful forever-juniors that I reckon it must be productive to somebody. And tokens may be "expensive computation", but those developers were more expensive still.90% of everything was already slop. The simple matter is that in many fields, slop is enough to clear the bar, especially when that slop makes the unit tests light up in green.
I checked Wiktionary but I was in disbelief that's labeled as a dogwhistle of a known fascist community[0] being used so freely here, so I gave you a benefit of the doubt..? I guess maybe it's not associated purely with them, but then it's not a valid or widely used phrase in English, so pardon my confusion..?
> Well, I've met enough developers throughout my career that were successful forever-juniors that I reckon it must be productive to somebody. And tokens may be "expensive computation", but those developers were more expensive still.
As someone who identifies with "rationalism", wouldn't you say this looks like bit of a selection bias on your side? Meanwhile the "ai race" to deploy the greatest boot-licking chat bot is having measurable and devastating impact on the environment and people? (And all that without tangible productivity gains, only with potential for long term loss thereof)
> 90% of everything was already slop. The simple matter is that in many fields, slop is enough to clear the bar, especially when that slop makes the unit tests light up in green.
Everything but pump and dump schemes (and perhaps other kinds of one-off fraud) has ongoing costs of maintenance, which slop tends to only increase. It was never nice to maintain things, but whether you keep burning tokens or hire actual expert devs to fix sloppy vibey mess, you'll be overpaying compared to if you put high effort from the start.
This constant equivocation in recent online discourse is tiring. I'm not even close to the rationalist community, I have always found them ridiculous for unrelated reasons, long before it was cool to do so: but I've also engaged with them enough to know that the majority of them is nerds with a science fetish, whose political alignment is about center-left by American standards.
Accusing somebody of being a fascist for telling you to consider the evidence in front of you, and then acting like that makes you the adult in the room, the one who is aligned with social norms and interested in a real debate, is laughable.
> Everything but pump and dump schemes (and perhaps other kinds of one-off
> fraud) has ongoing costs of maintenance, which slop tends to only
> increase. It was never nice to maintain things, but whether you keep
> burning tokens or hire actual expert devs to fix sloppy vibey mess,
> you'll be overpaying compared to if you put high effort from the start.
From my point of view, you're vastly overestimating the quality of most real-world software. There is a million internal applications running out there, powering every kind of business from financial over media to industrial, that evolved from a Perl script first forgotten by a sysadmin in 1994 and then just had more and more crap piled on top of them over the decades. As long as it works for what it needs to do, it will get used. "Software Quality" is a thing that matters only to nerds, and those very few working in sectors where it's actually relevant. But most people aren't writing software to go to Mars or power nuclear reactors.You know, what Microsoft has been trying with Palladium (can't risk general purpose computers! People might commit, oh the horror, copyright infringement, with those!)
Imho, as hardware keeps getting better, it seems to me this is the only thing that can make cloud investments worth it in the long term (which is only 2-3 years away) for hyperscalers. It's the only explanation. If OpenAI/SpaceX/Musk/... really thought AI would take over all jobs, they wouldn't be investing in compute, they'd be buying up farms, land, harbors, mines, bankrupt factories, fucking tax prep businesses ...
Make compute only possible within Goog/Amazon/Microsoft/... walled gardens ... that's the play. And this AI is a cute technology that conveniently needs lots of compute, but it's not even the actual core of the play. A very simple very old style monopoly grab, you know, the business plan people got convicted for trying in ancient Persia, 5000 years ago.
Unless prices get categorically higher, I don't think that's likely. Like 10x more than it is now.
Companies were buying computers for all their employees in the 90's, where a mediocre laptop could pretty easily cost two grand in 1990s money. My mom just bought a middle-of-the-road laptop for about a thousand dollars in today-money, and that was a consumer buying it; companies can generally spend more. "No choice but to use the cloud" feels like it's way too strong of a conclusion to draw.
Are you human? Then you must verify it from a "trusted computer", preferably with your driver's license. Gets governments and corporations as much information as they want, along with a guarantee that you can't "steal" their content and can't avoid their ads.
I have no doubt that Google and Microsoft will increasingly do things to force us to provide more data so they can do awful things to us.
You might see interest in thin-client plays for the same reason. They'd like to replace the local desktop with throwaway $50 terminals because it's easier to deploy on a standardized VM image and not have to replace dead SSDs and CPU fans.
Workstation tasks that require low-latency and high performance seem to stay local because the performance is simply not there.
Excuse my ignorance, do you have more details on this?
The Persian empire did not exist until round about 550 BCE.
Thus, the upthread statement,
> the business plan people got convicted for trying in ancient Persia, 5000 years ago.
Is somewhat nonsensical: 5000 years ago, Persia did not exist. I suppose we could be talking about whatever existed in that locale of the world around 3000 BCE. But that's what they're saying: "what do you mean, 'in ancient Persia, 5000 years ago', Persia did not exist then".
Persia, if anything, is a region of the earth, a chunk of land, in the same way Mesopotamia is. Saying it "didn't exist" at a specific point in time is fairly meaningless and the term was mostly used by greek/westerners to refer to the general geographic area.
Prices are up a bit but there are plenty of "free-programmable computers" from a dozen or more manufacturers on the market. That's not going away.
I take your point that AI is pushing up the price of computers, at least temporarily, but you're leaning way into conspiracy and cynicism in your original post.
"AI" is really 2 companies, by extension funded/owned mostly by FANG, and is not pushing up the price of computers, it's buying ALL DDR5 capacity, processors, memory, and of course GPUs, including the fab capacity to build them in the first place. I don't know if you've recently tried to convince your boss recently to buy a new machine, but ...