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I believe the analogy here is that investing in the Tesla IPO would have made a lot of money, yes, but at some point in a future implied to be not so far off, staying in Tesla should lead to losing all that money.
I sort of feel like that will probably prove to be true. Was it a bad idea to invest in the IPO, no, but it wasn't a bad idea to invest in tulips either, until it became a very bad idea.
You have to bet on the IPO knowing only the information at the time, not knowing what the future growth of the stock was.
Binlog simply pointed out that this firm's research is as good as a coin flip for tech. They have been suggesting shorting Tesla for 13 years. That's a lot of 'in the future' and a very long time to be wrong.
Every company in existence is likely going to 0 at some point in the future, but some companies seem like to go to 0 in a few years and some companies we can not as yet conceive of what might possibly cause them to go to O.
So the question when you invest is, am I investing in something I expect to crash and burn in a year, or I have no idea even what could cause them to crash and burn because they look so strong.
There seems to be some people in this conversation that believe Tesla is a crash and burn in a year (or two) company. And whenever you get confronted with this belief you talk about how if you invested in them 16 years ago you'd feel pretty good about it now! Which is totally true, but also if you had invested in Tesla 16 years ago and you had cashed in last year you'd have felt better about them than you would now. Also you are only able to invest now, not 16 years ago, because, as noted above, you do not have a time machine.
Do I believe Tesla is going to crash and burn, uhm maybe, I don't care that much but I do think there are signs of it.
No partner, children, or close family or friends?