To be fair we've gone from barely capable at writing code to what we have today in barely 3 years. I wouldn't put money on the counter bet that they won't get beyond this hump.
I think that's exactly the standpoint of Yann LeCun.
https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/godfat...
Progress is spiky and not guaranteed. The capital costs have also ballooned to the point where the rate has to level out
That's a pretty bold use of "has to". None of the financing behind AI seems sane, yet it continues to defy rational expectations. Reminds me of the comment "the market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent". It's not the exact meaning but has the same feeling. The circular financing going on does not help anything either
I’m in the process of dumping codex for more open harnesses that don’t add problematic new features every week. Because Anthropic insists that I have to use their harness with the subscription, eventually I’m either going to wrap `claude -p` to get away from the crappy TUI or else I’ll just unsubscribe and use other models. Their bad UX has alienated me as a paying customer.
Listed a few in my other comment
Went too far? Oops, it's not accessible from the Claude Code UI anymore! You can get the agent to dredge up the info from the session logs, but you'd better hope they put the pieces together correctly.
Also, you can't rewind to a steering message. Want to make sure you can rewind to it? Wait for the agent to settle, or stop them, enter your message, and hope you don't throw them off their current train of thought.
To see a proper rewind UI, see how Pi does it: Every message is available, forked conversation history is preserved. It has its own issues, but is miles ahead of Claude Code in this regard.
Like of course codex is the most powerful and "just" run `npx blah blah` but no, I'm not running randomly piped code on my personal computer and even if I didn't care about privacy it means I can only run this locally with my laptop on. "leave your laptop on and access from your phone" is not a good idea. It only adds to the surface area of confusion. Ux no good.
And so many more. I tried codex and it was lacking in many UX aspects. Remember we got from a text-paragraph-only terminal to this at breakneck speed.
And they can't seem to go two whole months without scrolling breaking in some new way.
Eg - I asked for a recipe and it says leave x for y time - there's actually deeplinks that link to your clock timer with the time preset! And to change quantities, there's input boxes in the response that update all quantities accordingly.
Many such cases of use-case specific UX
This is partly due to the multiplicative scaling factor -- the number of tokens; the number of transformer layers; the number of features; etc.
I suspect that for models to have a step upgrade either/both of 1) a new/improved architecture model; and 2) better training of smaller parameter models are needed. I say the latter as I think that with the larger weights there is a lot of unused/redundant parameters.
We don't see any indication that the LLM companies are slowing down and go for better code.
Instead it just looks like a cash grab until the AI bubble bursts.
I think newer models are more likely to produce the usuable output, almost always, but its still not great. The frequency in which you get usable results leads one to believe that quality is improving.. No usability is improving but the result is still meh.
Also put an llm in an environment without an lsp or compiler to check against and let me know how capable you think they are on their own. The "loop" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here.