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If we’re learning anything from the past 15 years it’s probably not to extrapolate AI progress in a straight line.

https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/godfat...

Progress is spiky and not guaranteed. The capital costs have also ballooned to the point where the rate has to level out

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> The capital costs have also ballooned to the point where the rate has to level out

That's a pretty bold use of "has to". None of the financing behind AI seems sane, yet it continues to defy rational expectations. Reminds me of the comment "the market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent". It's not the exact meaning but has the same feeling. The circular financing going on does not help anything either

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