Android has ~4b cumulative users, iOS 2.5b. Combined 1-2b phones are shipped annually, so phones are replaced over 3-6 years or so. Total production numbers of Sony PS2/Nintendo Switch are ~160m each, and there haven't been enough of those to be a viable alternative consumer platforms. China moves couple hundred million units per year of de-Googled phones internally(Google services are default banned in China except through Hong Kong VPN and such), and that doesn't seem to be changing situations much. Windows Phone was like few hundreds total.
The third option has to ship like 1000m - 1b units total and/or annually to be viable. Code quality... isn't going to matter, but it'll have to be literally 10-100x more popular than Nintendo. That is going to be the bar.
The bar for what? The parent talks about the start. I already daily drive Librem 5 without waiting for "the bar".
My point is that they need to be adopted at scales that almost dwarfs Nintendo, in the realms of billion devices in circulation(why does that phrase remind me of a certain purple-blue-yellow UNIX company...)