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Comment by ericmay | Hacker News Reader

Well, I’m also a big Apple fan with an iPhone and a home with various cameras in it and I’m considering this device.

Now what? More anecdotal “I’m maybe not the target customer therefore there is no market for the product” comments?

Alexa home, and its various iterations, is not a product I’d ever consider buying, yet lots of people, millions even, have purchased one.

“Who is this product marketed toward?”

“All these millions of people with Apple products”

“I have an Apple product and I won’t buy one”

Ok?

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OP said

> The market is: people with homes and an iPhones. That is to say, a fair number of people.

The point of comments like mine and @layer8's is that the market is actually much smaller than this. The fact that you are considering one does not mean the market is any category that includes you. It means that it is some category that includes you (and excludes me and @layer8). We don't know how big that market is, but if longtime Apple fans are not even considering the device, then probably it is not "all people with iPhones and homes". It could still be a big market, but it's glib to say that it's so large.

Ok now take all of your arguments and reverse them. Two random people on the Internet claiming they aren’t considering a purchase is completely meaningless and has no bearing or relationship to the market opportunity for this or other products. Software engineers, particular on this forum, are very often and usually wrong precisely because what they consider in products isn’t what others care about.

Thank you for being a voice of reason. Just wanted to say I appreciate it!

That's now how the logic works. If someone asserts "the market is XYZ" then they have to show that actually is the market. When people say "I'm in XYZ and I'm definitely not the market", that shows that the hypothesis is wrong. When someone else says "I'm XYZ and I'm in the market", that is a necessary but not sufficient condition.

Sure it is. You’re familiar with anecdotal evidence, right?

When someone says market size they don’t mean 100% of people fitting some characteristic must purchase some product. Please stop mindlessly arguing about dumb things.

I am aware that anecdotes are not as good as large-scale evidence. That does not defeat the point that you are confusing necessary and sufficient conditions, rendering your own anecdotes even more useless than mine and @layer8.

Really weird that you keep insisting that you're right here. Some guy on the internet made a conjecture, other people disagreed with him, and you feel the need to keep boosting his claim. Yet every argument you make equally damages your own side, rather than showing that your side is stronger. Really weird approach.

[flagged]

I'll let you continue being wrong in peace. Have a good day, and keep dreaming those sweet, sweet AAPL dreams!

Wrong about what? That Apple’s TAM is probably “all users with an iPhone”? Sure I’ll happily be wrong about that lol

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