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Elite overproduction I think refers to the unemployment rate of people who graduated from elite universities. I think that rate is probably still not high enough to be concerning for now.

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Turchin doesn’t restrict his ”elite” to graduates of elite universities.

But unemployment is a more easily measurable metric.

Let me put the question to you: what metrics do you use to verify whether elite overproduction is happening or not?

My point is that any such metric may turn out to have been wildly off in a post-ASI world. Ten years ago or even today it may have seemed fine to educate a large part of the population for ”elite” jobs, but after ASI that may instead be looked at as a massive overproduction of ”elites”.

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