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Comment by freakynit | Hacker News Reader

I believe these are the last sets of super-high-end models available to public (open or closed).. these companies probably will now start to withhold top-of-the-line models for themselves, governments, and their super-high-paying partners only.

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That hasn't been the way to bet. DeepSeek and the other Chinese firms show no signs of slowing down, so if OAI and Anthropic halt releases and "pace the frontier" they'll just fall behind. (And there's a chance that high-end AI will become fully commoditized, which suits DeepSeek just fine.)

Besides, Fable 5.5 is reportedly releasing within the next few days, probably on Tuesday...

China just announced tightened export controls on AI models, for what it's worth.

I really, REALLY hope this is a joke.

I wish it was…

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-proposes-ad...

They’ve technically got expedited approval for open weight models I think, but it still needs approval. And frontier level stuff gets extra scrutiny

We have the weights, we have the papers, nothing preventing development on this foundation.

Except compute

Do you think we are near the theoretical maximums of how much model we cram into 20B?

I don't consider myself qualified to make that call, though I believe there's plenty of room for improvement. But I don't mean inference compute, which is fairly accessible for well-off enthusiasts even now. Training is a lot more expensive though.

Back in the day we had seti@home, prime95 and fold@home. We will make it work.

When models are in the hundreds of gigabyte range, there are not enough nodes to train, because most people dont have 100k in AI hardware. Also there is no training method for machines scattered around the world as far as I know.

News from a near future:

Here's How Distill APT Used McKinsey's Private Access To Top Anthropic Model To Help The Chinese Keep Up With The Us Top IA Labs Despite Access Restrictions

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