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Comment by sneak | Hacker News Reader

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Just bet on Polymarket or Kalshi so we can all take your money instead. Post a screenshot of your position so we know you’re not full of baloney.

The first (much nicer looking!) Roadster Version 2 prototype was announced ~10 years ago (2017), and was never released, and has now been replaced with this, so it's a matter of faith to say it'll ever be released. It'd never sell in sufficient numbers to move the needle for Tesla, probably not even sufficient to recoup development costs.

Note that the only version of the car that could conceivably be street legal is the base one with downforce fan only, and no cold thruster launch (boost) - NTSB is never going to approve throwing out a condensation cloud smokescreen on the highway!

The "other side of that bet" would be betting that ordinary consumers will be driving it in 2028, which is what Elon claimed. A lot can happen in ten years---if Tesla ends up selling a clean-sheet sports car called something else by 2036, would that still count? Or are we talking about this specific model with these specs?

> if Tesla ends up selling a clean-sheet sports car called something else by 2036, would that still count? Or are we talking about this specific model with these specs?

Yes, and note that this has already happened: the original Roadster v2 from 2017 never shipped and was replaced with this one.

do you normally commit to - and pay a sizeable deposit - ten years before you take deilvery of a new car?

$250k USD invested today is ~$400k to ~$600k in 2036.

And that $50k deposit made 9 years ago? That could have been nearly $300k in 2036.

"A fool and his money..."

I don't have any particular problem with a modest (a few 10s of thousands) deposit on a ~3 year timeline that's reasonably confident. But six figures on a 100% speculative consumer good (ie not even remotely an investment)? Oof, no thanks.

Did we invent a new logical fallacy? If you believed that you'd bet money on it and since you aren't betting money on it then your argument is invalid!

Can I take that bet on the one that does flips?

"Tesla Roadster" in name, maybe. Tesla Roadster as a flying car that drives up walls? 0% chance of that seeing the light of day.

Elon stans are deeply weird people.

Within 10 years of today, or within 10 years of when it was announced 9 years ago?

From when the statement in question was made, obviously.

So, this new promise negates the original 3-year delivery timeline promised in 2017? That timeline, taken alongside Musk's recent "we're no longer a car company" statements is... well, you do you, I guess, but I'm not in the business having handing piles of cash to a billionaire.

If you mean one that can do the stunts from the demo I'm in, but not for $10k: that's more than I'm willing to bet with people I don't know. How about $100, since most of the point of a bet is formalizing a disagreement and showing that you're serious?

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