If SpaceX was reset to 2016, they would still be ahead of everyone else even today. Their deployed capabilities today are ahead of the plans of most of their competitors.
but perhaps you are thinking that starlink is the key? sure probably a bigger market - but any market it accesses is bound to eventually prefer ground lines.
so the only way to justify the valuation is if the AI side of the business becomes the most dominant AI business
Anyway, where's the revenue from space going to come from? Obviously not data centres now that Deepseek is commoditising inference.
The telecom business? Amazon is catching up there and Europe/the rest of the world is racing to build capabilities to not be dependent on Musk.
They may be catching up, but not anytime soon.
Global space launch market is 6.5B in 2026. Even the total global satellite market is only 23B in 2026.
You have to assume some pretty large numbers for YoY growth, market share, and profit margin to get to 2T valuation.