Le Pen is more or less dead politically. The RN is currently twisting itself into knots because they want to use the anti-government protests but are still supposed to be about law and order.
Le Pen is leading polls and is the polymarket fav by 2-3x.
You know who else was polymarket fav? The guy in this news who just lost
Wait, is that true? I try to ignore the prediction markets as they appear to be very well funded efforts at the tail wagging the dog, but can you provide the links to the biggest positions on this?
Oh, she’s leading on a gambling website that just got Sebria and Brazil massively wrong? Well, there we go then, victory assured.
Polymarket is very unreliable. People believe it because of survivor bias: they heard about all times when it turned out to be right, often associated with insider trading. You never hear about the thousands times it was wrong.