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Google are removing vast amounts of pages from their search indexes, leaving only "primary sources" that AI chat can reference.

So if you have a long-tail page ("obscure part number") then the only way to show it is buying an ad for it.

Is this related to the fact that I'm regularly unable to find many github repos via google?

I think github hides repos from indexing by default.

that never happened before. and kagi still shows them

Kagi might be (intentionally or accidentally) working around GitHub's attempt to prevent indexing of repos.

A questionable move on Google's part, if true. Can you share any evidence?

Evil is what Evil does.

Does any of us have any insight in Google manipulating the world?

Other than it's leading to their losses, no.