Just a tad bit more ; it like saying either an event will happen or not so probability is 50%.

Your scenario is certainly possible, that doesn’t make both predictions equally (un)likely.

I still think OpenAI holds on as a Google competitor and Anthropic does fine as a business tool. Do they match their outsized spending with future growth? Well, that I'm not very confident about. A lot of this really comes down to what is the business model of integrating AI with 3rd party systems and I don't see that anyone has truly cracked that yet.

I'm also speculating that they'll kindly donate at least 1 T of that to me out of the kindness of their heart.

At least you admit you're speculating (we all are). They confidently just say its a foregone conclusion.

If they're actually that confident I hope they short the stock long term with basically all their money.