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Comment by maerF0x0 | Hacker News Reader

It's a model that helps you make present tense valuations of potential futures.

No one said it literally is a projectile. It's an analogy and model. The similarities are in the present tense maths. It's presumed and beyond having to be stated that businesses exist in a complex set of variables all of which could change and might not be as predictable as the valuation maths.

You're not wrong, you're just not adding anything to the conversation that any but the most uneducated do not already know and acknowledge.

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And the analogy is literally not useful in any way whatsoever.

It implies that you can know Anthropic's outcome from this slice of data. That is literally not true in any way at all.

Like it's not even remotely or analogously or roughly true.

Anthropic behaves like a high-growth business with a quarter of slowing growth. It does not behave like a baseball. Any conclusions you draw from analyzing it as a baseball will be de facto faulty because the two systems are nothing like one another. The most basic assumption of projectile analysis (that energy is not added in-flight) is the opposite of the most basic assumption of a business (that they are actively profit-seeking).

The analogy adds nothing except ambiguity at best and active falsehoods at worst.

>It implies that you can know Anthropic's outcome from this slice of data.

No it doesn't. All I said was that given how little we have to go on and how early in the process we are, a minor 2nd or 3rd derivative slowdown isn't a positive signal. All indications are they they need additional orders of magnitude in revenue fairly soon.

I also never said that it wasn't self-propelled. I was starting to write about waiting to see if another stage of propulsion comes online but I deleted it.

Okay, well if you weren't suggesting you can predict the outcome based on this slice of data, then "projectile" is a really stupid analogy. The defining characteristic of a projectile is that you can do this.

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