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Comment by Qiu_Zhanxuan | Hacker News Reader

A company that is purely in Denial, even doubling down at the risk of toppling the whole financial system should be placed under the financial equivalent of arrest and its leadership actually arrested. They're obviously playing with fire and it's alarming that no one's in the administration is batting an eye.

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Oracle is small potatoes, it’s not toppling anything. If anything, Oracle’s demise would boost productivity.

Oracle not able to provide its usual "services" would disrupt many institutions which unfortunately rely on their technology and assistance operating the often expensive and complex Oracle integrations they've set up, for better or worse. I really despise Oracle and the Ellisons and they don't need a bailout but I'd hate to see what could come from many significant collapses of technology for social institutions.

Oracle the company filing for Chapter 11 protection doesn't mean Oracle the software stops running on all the machines it's installed on.

Technology and services for Oracle databases and enterprise apps would be part of bankruptcy restructuring. Being of value, it would not just shut down and disappear. As a business unit, it might be purchased (for example by IBM).

It might. Have you ever seen what happens to a lawnmower when it overheats?

If Oracle suffered a massive financial collapse wouldn't all those aspects of its business that are needed and paid for "just" get sold off and be managed as a new entity? I quote just because it would be an enormous amount of paperwork and organizational restructuring, but people with enterprise scale money tend to get to keep the services they pay for.

This came up in the last discussion: The TL;DR is that shareholders go to zero, bond holders take a haircut and then own "new Oracle" (Opacle?) that can generally sustain itself with revenues from agressive JDK audits, RDBMS licenses, and ERP/PeopleSoft.

(Opacle == One Poor A-hole Called Larry Ellison)

He wouldn't be involved any more. It would be Aracle: another rich asshole conquered Larry Ellison

The technology would not collapse, only the equity owners' purchasing power would collapse. Ellison owns 40%, so the rest of society only loses 60% * $360B = $260B, which is not much in the grand scheme of things.

And "the rest of society" are those buying BBB/BBB- bonds. This is a risk taken in exchange for higher interest rates.

That'll include some big retirement/investment funds, but it's not big funds blindly buying without considering the risk.

Just think of it as a final service shutoff. Clients have had 30 years to migrate off of Oracle. /s

What's your thesis on how their $125B in debt would bring down the whole financial sysetm?

All AI players are in bed with each other, they have commitments and obligations to each other. One of them failing (namely Oracle) could bring them all down domino-style. And us with them, since the market is ride or die with these companies.

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