I think the fundamental disagreement is you believe that cheaper models can just break the state of the art. This seems false because if it were true then the SOTA can also stop developing and spending on SOTA and just use a cheaper model to build their own better models and leverage their existing compute and energy infrastructure (or even build it out for better and more capabilities later). Anything that is released the SOTA has access to, but it also has access to things that others don't. It's ahead by definition and it's not possible to come out ahead of it because the SOTA will just absorb whatever open-weight/open-source/whatever is released and add to its own lead.
> SOTA AI only labs has much less moat than Microsoft or other incumbent tech with decades of overlapping capture mechanisms.
And those companies are worth a lot of money, continue to execute at high levels, are systematically important, and are by any definition wildly successful. That's my point. You have to apply the open source style argument fairly and equally. If you're going to suggest the cheaper models (which follow this open source software argument) are going to come into being and do all this stuff you also have to acknowledge that they made no money in comparison to the Microsofts of the world and Microsoft won because it made all the money. Whatever open-weight stuff that gets released everybody gets to use it and so tech companies get to use it too and accelerate their advantages. This is what we've seen play out, why would AI be any different when you're using the same economic paradigm as your argument?
> Literally the primary reason PRC AI was forced to go free was because DeepSeek is billionaire side project who priced his hobby as free which set economics for all other players.
American billionaires can also "just set up a side project" and reset whatever economics exist. The crux of your argument is someone can do this and then SOTA isn't economically viable, but you can't escape that this has to be true for everyone, not just the US. If it's true for everyone you also then have to admit the SOTA can't progress because there's no viable economic model - anytime you make an advance in the SOTA someone "just sets up a side project" and/or steals your model or w/e.
The US SOTA losing just means the SOTA has to be equal for everyone or the US is ahead - you can't have it both ways. Progress is practically impossible because you can't make money and you can't obtain a lead so nobody will do any work since their work will just be immediately utilized by someone else.
If what you are proposing here is true, then China is permanently behind. There isn't an economic model to obtain a "lead", yet the American companies get to just take all the work that Chinese companies do (until they go bankrupt not making money) and add it to their lead.
> The productive answer is THEY ARE ALSO BEING eaten alive.
Well you can just run them out of business then. If they spend any money you just spend more until they can't make money and close up shop. Or is someone going to subsidize them indefinitely?
The economics of these arguments that the US SOTA companies are just going to go bankrupt because of cheaper models is something I just don't find compelling. I've been trying. I debate these things so I can learn, but I'm just not seeing a coherent argument on the topic.
I don't think all of these tech companies and investors are stupid. Greedy to a large extent and some will lose their hats? Absolutely. Stupid? I don't think so. Worst case is all the infra is still useful.