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Comment by whimsicalism | Hacker News Reader

You're posting this all over the site but Kalshi is very clearly a licensed futures market regulated by the CFTC

> Kalshi is very clearly a licensed futures market regulated by the CFTC

As an excluded commodity. Based on the CFTC's own rule making. Based on this logic the SEC can go back to deciding it gets to regulate anything as securities fraud.

“Regulated by the CFTC” is a bit of an oxymoron when they don’t do any real enforcement

How is that at all clear? They are likely subject to CFTC regulations but there are a lot of questions about whether or not they are in compliance.

Describing an organization with a license from the CFTC as an "unregulated futures market" is just flat wrong, I'm not really sure why you're motte-baileying here.

They offer contracts that are almost certainly outside the scope of regulation, an appeals court has already ruled that some of their contracts are indeed subject to state laws and not CFTC regulation, and they are continuing to push the envelope. How is it wrong to call them an unregulated market under the circumstances?

Because they are subject to a regulator and hold a license from a regulator.

Bernie Madoff's operation was also subject to a regulator and was properly registered as a broker-dealer; that did not somehow make it a regulated operation, at least not in the sense of actually complying with the regulations. Boiler rooms are also subject to a regulator (the SEC) and obviously are not regulated brokerages.

Really it sounds like this is a disagreement about what it means for a market to be "regulated" -- I draw the line at compliance, you seem to draw the line elsewhere.

Not to go prescriptivist, but yes I think your "line" for regulated is just semantically incorrect, a non-compliant organization can still be regulated.

One could argue that unenforced regulation (and a thereby non-compliant organization) is not that different from nonexistent regulation.

Oh word? what specific commodity is being traded?

The CFTC was created to hedge real risk. Onions iirc?

Kalshi creates risk where there was none before. The 'future' on the 'commodity' of 'number of dunks by an aging shaq at a halftime show'.

Courts have taken the dimmest possible view of this legal fabrication and I expect their losses in courts to continue without direct intervention by the Trump scions.

People will say (including in this thread) that it allows them to hedge against negative outcomes. What negative outcomes are experienced by someone hedging against whether LeBron flies his helicopter to practice or not?

Helicopter repair companies?

Damn.

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