Despite this, when discussing the egregious behavior of the frontier labs, there is vanishingly little acceptance of the idea that 1) yes, it probably was inevitable in some ways AND 2) those involved, particularly at the top, are still responsible for the consequences of their (bad) decisions.
The models we currently have aren't going away, and especially the ones small enough to run at home will continue to be used, but if these data center investments end up bankrupting Big Tech, I don't think we're ever going to see anything beyond that. Not for a long time, at least.
My guess would be that once the money runs out, things slow down, but incremental progress continues to be made. A focus on smaller models will improve their capabilities. We’ll get better at driving them. It’ll be used in places where it truly makes sense, instead of anywhere & everywhere just because it’s easy.
I don’t actually know what the financials are, but even without the effective subsidy from VC money, I have to believe there are things AI’s doing today that’s way cheaper than what it would cost to have a human doing equivalent work. And that dynamic will drive further innovation in the space for a long time.
What does this actually mean? In what sense are people using this term. In the most strictly literal sense then sure, nothing is inevitable, because all paths are open.
But in the practical sense, I am quite happy to use the term inevitable for many technologies. I think if ASI is possible (and I think it is), then it is also inevitable. I would happily work towards developing ASI technology, because I believe it will be ultimately good for the world. But it sounds like a lot of people want to lock me up or even kill me if I did that.
1. Is it both inevitable and still they are responsible? 2. Or it was inevitable and they were just an instrument to make it happen. 3. Or it wasn't inevitable and if it were not for some specific people then it would not have happened?
I am leaning more towards 2. But if that is the case why are only specific people reaping the benefits of this?
If it is 3 or 1, then why aren't we holding them accountable?
So yes, they are 100% responsible for damage they caused and did not had to happen. And no, "I had no choice, because it was the only way to become billionaire" is not an excuse.
They were NOT "instrument". No one manipulated them. No one forced them. Nothing forced them. They themselves wanted to and did not cared
Other labs seem to be working the exact same angles as them, but just have the good sense to not be so open about it. It's not the "lab" people have a problem with, it's their leadership. These people cannot be trusted to make the right decisions for society with this technology.
So yeah, I'm negative against their development of AI along with the general public, and for good reason it would seem.
Also, I don't want super intelligence. I want humans to remain in control. Why are they trying to build something to replace humanity? Why don't we got a vote in this? All 8 billion of us not developing frontier models with the expressed goal of achieving AGI followed closely by ASI.
It's a pity because as computer scientists this should have been such a fun technological moment for us. What a cool thing to experiment and explore new open doors with. But instead it was immediately the driver of mass job loss, societal upheaval, and a double digit percent chance of ending humanity, espoused by the AI lords themselves.
I do. Quite a lot of people do. And that is because we believe it will lead to a better life for most humans.
The list of possible reasons is pretty short and mostly not really good for most of us, as far as I see it
People are starting to panic, and few things bring out full blown idiocy and disregard for ground truth faster than widespread panic.
You must be joking. Altman is a sociopath, Amodei is either too stupid or too evil to stop working on tech he claims will have a 10% chance of destroying humanity (and in either case he should be imprisoned to protect the rest of us from him), and Musk is a man-child who will lash out at anyone and everything who dares to speak ill of him. There's absolutely nothing "lucky" about having these jokers in charge of stuff.
It's similarly easy to come up with "what Altman should do better". The dude is a genuine sociopath in charge of a company trying to make everyone's lives worse off in order to enrich him and his investors. It doesn't get much worse behaved than that.