Odds of coming out this year just dropped from 95% to 70% on polymarket
Which means nothing in terms of likelihood of events happening or not happening.
Every picosecond, anything and everything has a 50/50 chance of happening
In no way is this remotely true. Stop.
What you’re describing is a stochastic process, and that’s not how stochastic processes work at all.
Not true. Is the Anthropic IPO happening this picosecond? At 50/50 odds, I'll bet on no. I'll bet on it for the next million picoseconds. How much are you willing to put on yes?
I've just been very unlucky in the last 1000000 picoseconds that's all
Here I am saying “well, shit”, over and over again, but so quickly that not even dogs can hear it.
Odds easily manipulated by those with money aren't useful. When you're playing around for a trillion, a billion isn't much money to lose
They can but they shouldn't. They have nearly $100b in cash and cash equivalents. But given the massive compute cost commitments, that clock keeps ticking down especially as the private equity and debt markets are closing on them day to day. And delaying sends a signal to the wider market which causes cloud providers and everyone downstream to get repriced lower, making the financial landscape even worse. The question is if Anthropic's situation will look better say three months from now. Given growth slowing and margin compression in Q3, that's a fat if.
This is very much aligned with Steve Eisman’s take: that it’s a terrible overvaluation but for Anthropic it is now or never.