depends on if they're cost efficient. if there comes some kind of "good enough" inference chips and so on (which i believe will happen), then those will simply provide the most tokens per dollar and make open models even cheaper
I shortened my list to NVidia and AMD because putting Apple in muddies my point: I'd argue they'll be able to sell laptops + phones in that world, but only if you can run frontier open models on their devices, and do so efficiently. This is definitely not the case for their in-house AI offerings, like Siri, but it is already true if you install llama.cpp or whatever. I suspect that AI will not be a big revenue source for them (unless they completely turn around their software engineering org), but instead will be a "good enough to keep people from dumping their iCloud subscription" offering instead. Siri is basically that: It's completely useless, but people aren't switching to android because of it.