I stand corrected. ARR in Jan 2025 was $1 billion, and ARR now is ~ $75 billion. A mere 75x. You’re right, they’re doomed.
And unless my math skills are completely off, it’s about 21 months, not two years, but fair enough. What 18 month period in that range would you like to consider as validating the ridiculous idea that open weight models are going to eat Anthropic’s lunch?
It also doesn't do much to disprove the OP's argument which is that the actual models aren't what drive growth. (I'm ignoring the "no business model" claim as either hyperbole or too silly to engage with.) I personally think it doesn't particularly matter which models Anthropic is running because the tools like Claude are what people are actually paying for. Anthropic, at this point, is so far ahead of the competition in the tooling around models that they can probably just start running Deepseek products directly and people would still pay them.