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Comment by rahulyc | Hacker News Reader

People seem unnecessarily deluded here in a supposed hacker forum. If they are really created actual digital intelligence smarter than every human and figure it out how to control it, then 1T dollars means this is the most undervalued business in the entire world. Maybe by 100x or 1000x. You have billions of super genius slaves in data centers that do whatever you want, then if a single human developer can earn $100k/year pessimisticly let alone a super genius one. Multiply that by a billion and do the math at 80% gross margins

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…and what if they haven’t? Given that we haven’t seen evidence of one so far.

You’re also missing the competition aspect. What if other companies have their own super genius slaves to sell at a cheaper price? What if open models allow anyone to have their own moderately genius slave at far less expense?

Yours is a reasonable estimate at the _value_ of their product. They will only be able to capture that value if their competition cannot catch up AND they can reduce spend on R&D. I personally do not believe they’ll defeat distillation.

> If they are really created actual digital intelligence smarter than every human

Whoever is claiming that is an idiot.

If a frog had wings...

You are making claims with no basis, caveat-ed by "if," and then calling everyone here fools for not basing their beliefs on your wishful thinking.

Every market cap is a prediction of future profits. If they had trillions in profits every year already, then the price wouldn't be 1.1T, it would be 100T and we wouldn't have this discussion. 1T is a option to buy it, and it's probably a good bet even if there's a 10% chance that it happens.

What if they have billions of super genius slaves, but Chinese companies have just slightly less super genius (and catching up) slaves for 1/4th of the price, while all prices are already dropping?

I see nothing delusional in speculating that that’s a very big if.

And if they haven’t created an artificial superintelligence then they start to look more like just another tech startup with no moat[1] and a terrible balance sheet.

[1] I don’t know about you, but I switch model providers multiple times per day.

Every market cap is a prediction of expected future profits. In their mind, I'd say that's what the whole "race" is that they are so desperate to win. The race to win is the race (in their minds) to get such powerful beings to get a permanent lead with ASI. Getting to powerful enough beings to wipe out all the competition and become emperors of this new world.

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