> CFTC, which isn’t as heavy handed as the SEC even under democrats

In ordinary times when the CFTC is just regulating things like pork belly futures, sure. But crypto and sports gambling are extremely politicized and red-coded now; Kalshi shouldn't expect the same sleepy regulation for them as for ordinary commodities.

Honestly I don't see their endgame. Even if they win these cases in court and fall under CFTC jurisdiction, that only matters if they have friendlies in the White House and the next administration will have knives out for them.