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Comment by bensyverson | Hacker News Reader

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bensyverson·

I guess we'll see if it's really a sell-off, or if it was normal market volatility around an election.

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There's not much normal about the market last 5 years...

I wonder how much of that volatility is directly attributable to SPX 0DTE being a daily thing since circa 2022.

Not much normal about the government in the past year either.

I think we're overdue for a big correction. There are just too many companies keeping the same "we’re growing so fast, so we’re not profitable yet" line for 10+ years now.

If it takes 10 years then it becomes the new normal.

I definitely hadn’t expected a big correction, and would expect the market recover and recoup the losses soon.

The global events of last few years created a lot of inflation, and the new money has to go somewhere. A large part of stock market gains are the new money disguised as growth.

It really is a sell off. that much is obvious. how long it lasts, is the next question. If history is any guide, not much longer. Rebounds tend to be very fast and sudden. See 2020 or 2025 for example.

2020 isn’t exactly history in market terms

It doesn't fit any normal distribution actually.

Normal as in "typical", not as in "Central Limit Theorem".

Wiener processes aren't a completely terrible model for markets though.

I think it's a fat tail or jump diffusion process. There is a ton of literature about this over the past 30 years.

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