The crashes seem be getting smaller and more frequent
Market prices being unpredictable random walks doesn't mean that the volatility or shape needs to be constant. To make the notation more precise, you need to talk about (sub-) martingales.
> If they deviated, someone could notice that pattern and trade on it, returning the market back to a random walk.
This is true, but "fairly fixed distribution of different sized crashes." doesn't follow at all.
A small sell-off is just business as usual.
The discussion here is around broader stock market indices.
The title literally has AI in the title, the conversation is centered around an "AI selloff", as its been labeled, that happened this week.
Roughly 40% of stock market gains since 2023 are tied to less than 10 companies with massive AI investments.
The entire conversation is about this sector, and most of the gains in the "broader indices" that nobody was discussing, are largely attributed to AI invesment and speculation.
My intuition is that financial markets seem increasing dissociated from any correlation with street level economy or the financials of traded companies?