That said, I think that incorporating randomness or hidden variables into a user interface is rather misguided. Making a system harder to reason about takes control away from the user- it's basically an even more severe version of the problems with "Do What I Mean" in general.
I like that "action potential" idea – I was trying to think of a good implementation for "do something twice a month per user" — decaying counter is a nice idea.
I'm with you on willy nilly making parts of your UI random — my use case is for changing up the text in greetings, general play with copy, and once in a while showing something like a tip or a "welcome back" message. Basically, small touches that convey a small sense of variety (vs. RANDOMLY DONT SHOW THE NAV!)
Then whoever looks after the wording can just add as many strings as they like, for any messages they think could do with some variety. No forward planning required, because the code to do this is centralized, so it works for any string.
What is awesome about what you've done is the idea and the interface. I'd focus on expanding that with more interesting use cases. For example it would be cool if this hooked more neatly into rails localization where I could say something like:
= t('some_set_of_possible_stuff.*')
Or whatever. I agree with the other poster who states it makes your app more hard to test however that is not a good enough reason to not do something by itself. It just means you need to be measured in how and where you do it and careful. In the right app, the value to the end user experience wrt personalization is super high so it is worth it.