To be fair, even your original observation is complete speculation that may or may not apply, as admitted by yourself. You could easily reformulate your statement as:

> I noticed an uptick in hellbanned after the baked-goods incident. It seems several otherwise rational individuals turned into violently cupcake and confectionery haters during that whole debacle.

I'm not saying that's the case here (I haven't looked), [...]

And it would carry about the same meaning. "Here is an event that happened, which I admit I have no idea if it applies to this other event, but here is some speculation linking the two events together.

Note: I didn't downvote you, but I can see why people are. Plus if you only have one word to say about a subject, a downvote is a better choice.