Yeah, but what do those ten lines
do?
I have a piece that's coming out soon on this, but we need to rethink how we're measuring "10x." Is it speed of code? I know people who can write thousands of lines of poorly formatted code quickly. Is it the breadth of knowledge of the field and domain? I'll show you 10 lines of code in shell that can solve a client's problem. It's entirely possible to be slow but efficient.
Is it pure focus and dedication? I know people who can code 10 hours a day, others who can only code 3 hours before their brain is tired. Knowing which is which doesn't tell you who is the more productive programmer.
Perhaps it's the "smart" one. I know people who can solve deep problems, but they can't code a business app quickly. Yet we treat the two as the same developer skill. And what of someone who excels at clean code? Does this say anything about their skill in general?
All this is compounded by the way a developer presents themselves. We don't know if Steve Yegge is a great programmer or not, but he sounds like one. I've seen a lot of people who sound great. What if this is a skill in and of itself? If you can have a developer who can sit down with a customer who is angry, calm them down, find their needs and pain points, and create a small solution that's ugly as hell on the inside but serves the client's needs, is that a good developer?
Perhaps we need to step back and re-evaluate what 10x actually means.