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I think the potential Tumblr acquisition offer is based on userbase/audience value rather than any kind of (current) monetization.

It seems Yahoo is trying to extend their reach in the active/young people market. Tumblr audience is a perfect fit for this strategy and sure Yahoo is ready to pay premium as there are not many comparable platforms available for acquisition.

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The problem with active/young people market is they are very temperamental to ads, if you don't treat your user base like the tumblr founders have, they would have easily changed to another platform with less ads. Sure if yahoo acquires tumblr they gain direct access to this marketbase but if they tarish what tumblr is now, with a bad ad revenue scheme they will very easily lose that market base to something else.

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