Ya, as usual, the truth is somewhere in the middle.
The PC industry has matured. Compare it, if you will, to those boring utility companies. Yes, they still do make a lot of money, but there's nothing inherently exciting about them.
microsoft today is one of those boring utility companies. Whenever I watch one of their ads full of young, energetic people dancing and clicking, I try to imagine my local water company trying to market itself this way, and I can't stop laughing at that point.
The future is Apple, Google, Mozilla, and a fourth company that hasn't yet been created.