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Comment by LekkoscPiwa | Hacker News Reader

The average age of the US farmer is 58. In Japan it is 68. There is less and less land available for agriculture. Less and less fresh water (agriculture uses 90% of fresh water in the US). The weather gets worse by the year to produce food. On the other hand there are more and more people in the world. So supply is diminishing while demand is high. That's why food is more and more expensive almost every quarter.

All these smart folks at Stanford are wasting their time studying IT, law or finance. Too much competition. Study agriculture, be rich. Farmers are going to drive Maserati's in the future not successful software developers or Wall Street crowd.

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> Farmers are going to drive Maserati's in the future

Or people who own farmland?

Farmers are getting older because small-scale farms are disappearing. Agriculture is an incredibly hard business, and unless you have scale, one bad year will wipe you out. Now, those few that do have more land than some sovereign states and the machinery to work it are making some serious money, so working for them is a perfectly viable career strategy.

Or, the engineers and developers make the hardware and software that is inevitably replacing all human labor in agriculture.

An IT startup dealing with agriculture could be successful. There are these companies like the one that produces water purification systems and chemicals in China that are just pure gold to invest in. (Chinese have horrible, horrible water quality even for the purposes of agriculture). As China is becoming richer and richer doing basic stuff like this may turn out to be much better place to be than spending years competing for VC money with 10% chances of success.

Climate Corp in Seattle does ag insurance with Clojure. Pretty cool people.

If you focus on just age you're not getting the whole picture. The average farm is getting much larger. In your grandfathers time you could raise a family and put kids though college on 160 acres. Nowadays it might take several thousand acres to do the same thing.

Outliers are managing 10-20,000 acres. To do that you need a lot of capital. The large need for capital makes it nearly impossible for an outsider to do a startup. Returns are small and farmers face risk with weather, markets and government intervention into the market.

Small farmers pay more for supplies and are at an extreme disadvantage before putting a single seed in the ground. Exceptions to the rule are niches like organic farming and greenhouses.

I'd be interested in the source of the U.S. figure. My guess is that this is only looking at independent farmers. But they produce a declining share of agricultural output. What's the average age of an Archer Daniels Midland employee?

just google the figure. Jim Rogers uses it in the interviews all the time, so when you are at it, google him and his stand on the future of the agriculture too.

As easy as supply & demand. App Store Supply & Demand is such that you get apps for free. Food industry Supply & Demand is such that a cup of coffee can be at 3-5 bucks. Just paid 20usd for an organic chicken. And that's cheap! Really does taste different (much better).

So? Coding an iPhone app for free because it's cool? I know agriculture doesn't have any of the "cool" factor some of the people are looking for, but you know what? Working for free isn't cool. Selling chickens 20usd/piece or coffee 4usd/cup probably is. And if you can't make it in the agriculture world - the government will keep subsidizing you forever.

What not to like about it ?

It's important to watch what trader/pundits like Jim Rogers actually do, not just listen to what he says. He's made a big deal about the current and future commodities boom, but he's also running a group of commodities funds. He makes bold claims about how Balliol MBAs should be buying farms instead of going into other industries, but he does not own any farms. He moved his young daughter to Singapore so that she could become fluent in Mandarin, he did not move her to Minnesota so that she could learn how to farm soybeans. It's always going to be better to be the commodities trader who controls a market than it is to be the producer of that commodity. If you watch what he has done, rather than what he says... you want to move to Singapore to broker commodities to the emerging asian markets, not move to Fresno to start an orchard.

Regarding "why" people may choose to make iPhone apps instead of farming. It's almost impossible to get started up in agriculture for someone who hasn't inherited a farm. Farmland where I'm from is over $10K per acre at the moment. You need millions of dollars just to buy the land. Then you need millions of dollars to buy all the equipment. Also, subsidies only happen for cash crops and commodities like milk and pork, you don't get subsidies for organic chicken and vegetables.

one doesnt need to own land to participate in the agriculture industry. It seems that food stand might be all it takes. Jim rogrrs moved to singapore and not minesota because he participates in the agriculture industry using his brokerage skills. probably much mire effective given his background. my claim is this: write software that has to do with agriculture. might be a great niche. and if you are young enough dont waste your time studying IT to compete with bazolion others to write apps for free. rather help in an industry likr agriculture where supply is very weak and demand is very strong. ever heard of restaurants giving out food for free on a regular basis to lure in customers?

If by farmer, you mean someone who works on a farm, but doesn't own it, it's laughable to suggest that they will ever be making a lot of money.

If by farmer you mean someone with millions of dollars of capital invested in farmland, it's not accurate to compare them to a run of the mill software developer. As with all industries in a capitalist economy, the people with the capital are the ones making most of the money.

You don't need to be a farmer neccessarily. Like the guy from the article who has a food stand. You may partake in the agriculture industry in many different ways. I wonder if anybody ever has went to a farmer and asked him what is the single most annoying thing he has to deal with and tried to create start-up around a proposed solution to this annoyance. People do it all the time to get ideas about what is needed on the market. Who would go to the middle of Minesota to ask? Could be worth the effort vs. writing another Facebook game that's supposed to make money on ads - is all Im saying.

> Farmers are going to drive Maserati's in the future not successful software developers or Wall Street crowd.

Jim Rogers? http://www.jimrogersinvestments.com/2012/05/jim-rogers-farme...

edit: followed your later comments, yup.

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