Lightning is overdesigned which makes it expensive.
That's not the test of overdesigned. It's overdesigned if the cost doesn't provide sufficient benefit - and it clearly didn't.
The connector succeeded because the IPod was extremely popular and then Apple got to leverage network effects.
Really? The cost for a lightning to HDMI cable tends to fall in between that of an MHL to HDMI and a Slimport to HDMI adaptor.
No for several reasons (and since I haven't seen a single car with wifi music built-in, I'm going to assume you're abstracting wifi/bluetooth here into wireless):
1) Wireless drains batteries and I may not have a charger
2) Wired = charge-capable, likely charging.
3) Wireless setup requires authentication and configuration, often from the car itself. My 2012 Sienna is a great vehicle that is comfy on a road trip for 7 ppl, but it's BT implementation is a godawful nightmare. Setup is required to be initiated from the car, and can only be done through voice, and when you're not driving (even by passengers). Also, it tends to "lose" configs every once in a while. Meanwhile, the USB port just plays whatever's connected to it (we use mainly iDevices, so not sure about droids) and the in-wheel controls work fine.
Cars should never under any circumstances ever have specific apps like Spotify, Pandora, and Bing. In 15 years, people are going to feel pretty stupid about owning those. The 3.5mm TRS connector, however, is a long term open standard that will still be working long after Pandora folds.
Isn't that the point? Its shiny at the time you buy it, but it quickly feeds planned obscelescence, increasing your desire to replace it later. Win-win for the manufacturer.
And in a year or so, the transition to USB3, requiring a new port, will start; Lightning will handle USB3 with a different cable.
Also, of course, most modern Android devices don't have a microUSB port; they have microUSB+MHL or +SlimPort.
Maybe that's why you're struggling to find a source that "directly confirms it".
PDMI has USB 3.0, displayport and high current power.
the ipod dock connector has firewire and composite video.
Overdesigned? Really? I'm not sure; it accomplishes the same thing as MHL, Slimport et al (which also tend to be expensive) and will be able to support USB3 when the time comes. It's far more futureproof than the old 30 pin thing.
I would really love to see a magnetic bi-directional cable eventually for phones/tablets. The Surface one is OK, but it doesn't snap as nicely as I think it could.
Lightning is just Apple's marketing term for Intel's Thunderbolt interface. The standard is available from Intel, and if it were not it would be more appropriate to direct your anger at Intel.
Thunderbolt is the PCI interface, Lightning is the alternate USB connector.