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Also, do people try to influence the outcome itself? For example, couldn't you ask: "When will X person die." And then someone could bet a huge amount of money on it, and then go kill that person?

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You're thinking of Assassination markets [0]

[0] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_market

I find assassination markets a fascinating concept: I wrote a short story about them ( http://www.gwern.net/fiction/The%20Ones%20Who%20Walk%20Towar... ) and pondered whether they might be a successor to Silk Road (http://www.gwern.net/Silk%20Road#future-developments probably not).

I think you try to setup the market so that X dies of natural causes. So that at least it is more work than to rub someone out outright.

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