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this is why given a choice between theory/plans/estimates/schedules or, say... reality and iterating and observing what-actually-happens ... I always prefer the latter. in software engineering, in human relationships, and in the physical world around me in general.

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Well, sure, as logical people we know that you can't predict failures and that it's always better to play it by ear. Unknown unknowns and all that.

I have worked at several places where salespeople have sold a feature without even asking if it was POSSIBLE, much less created/deployed/tested. "We just sold [Feature X], we told them it'd be ready by [date pulled out of thin air]."

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