API are useful and have their place, but nowhere near implied "API or die". Same for open source.

I'd say offering "free" services is a powerful business and will become even more powerful model to crush overpriced competition, grab their customers and monetize the traffic and brand visibility. This model will evolve more and more.

Regarding open source - 90% of github is full of junk, and open sourcing does not necessarily mean any kind of success. It's a case by case.