RE #3: I don't think the NSA even needs to try this yet, given #1 and #2. There are too many vulnerabilities going into browsers accidentally for anybody to bother deliberately adding one.
Re #4: On Windows, SSL is a defense-in-depth measure for protecting Firefox downloads/updates. Windows's Authenticode check is another defense-in-depth measure. I agree that both aren't perfect, but they aren't completely useless. More importantly, though, Firefox updates on Windows are signed and verified using a mechanism that is completely separate from the public PKI world. This is the primary defense (IMO) and this is something we should extend to updates on other platforms. (B2G has its own, different, wholly-separate signing mechanism too.) The design is sound though I wouldn't be surprised if there were things we could do operationally to improve things further; I don't know since I'm not in opsec.
> In other words, if we're serious about securing our browsers against this adversary, we need to think a lot bigger than just verifying that the binaries on our FTP servers match our source.
I don't think that anybody is going to disagree with this. However, this statement being true doesn't mean that verifiable, open-source builds are useless. Especially in the long term, as we improve in #1 and #2 in particular, verifiability and openness is very important.
Also, I miss you.