Hacker News Reader

> nobody is buying PCs and OS-licenses anymore

Yet, almost everybody is still using PCs and regular desktops, either at home, or at work. Even with the explosive growth of mobile devices, the PC market is still bigger - and I suspect that the reasons for why people aren't buying so many PCs anymore is due to (a) lack of innovation and (b) PCs have a long life and a 4-year old PC or laptop is working just fine for most people. What's really over is the upgrade treadmill. Either way, I'm glad that all kinds of wankers think the PC-era is over, maybe we'll finally have some real innovation in this space.

> They realize that the future belongs to services spanning several devices and multiple platforms ... Microsoft is literally forced to make this "new" Windows-model if they want to remain relevant in the future

Actually there is only one platform that is slowly but surely cannibalizing every other platform, the open web, making the concept of an operating-system irrelevant for the purposes of achieving lock-in the good-old fashioned way. In fact, I bet that Microsoft wants a future dominated by app stores, because that's a future they know how to control.

348.7 million PCs were wold in 2012. Never make absolutes, except that you shouldn't make absolutes. They make your opinions look dumb.

But the sales in 2013 declined in 11% .

Still higher sales than tablets.

Edit: Also, 2013 figures shouldn't be out until March (if I remember right)... where are you getting these numbers from? Is that a quarter decline?

Just some rough internet search. Others talk about 10% , and mid year predictions we're similar.

The interesting part is that both PCs aren't going away, and there is a huge market at the backend. MS is simply throwing those markets away, trying to get into the shiny new thing.

At the same time, the shiny new mobile market is getting more and more similar to the desktop interface MS is trying to throw away. (Android alread has multiuser support, file navigators are getting more Windows(7)-like, status bars are getting more complete, tablets are gettng keyboards...) And mobile devices will get good enough quite soon, then their sales will also go down.

By the way, I'm behond hate here, I'm not participating in any way. I'm just watching the train wreak.

Nothing from the desktop-era Windows fits into that picture. Nothing. For Microsoft to be on those devices that just needs to go.

One word: Surface

Microsoft's strategy is not based on the idea that nothing from desktop OSes belongs on tablets. To get an ecosystem that is built from that idea, you need to look to Apple's offerings. Microsoft's approach has been to attempt to meld the tablet and PC experiences. Which seems to have failed miserably, because as you observe they really don't fit together very well. The end result has been an offering that's received a lukewarm-at-best reception in both the desktop and the tablet spaces.

> nobody is buying PCs and OS-licenses anymore

Is this because nobody is using PCs anymore or because consumer grade PCs currently have an expected life of 5+ years?

To a large extent, yes. A decade ago you needed to significant upgrade every couple of years to stay current but now a machine can stay useful for the basics and beyond[1] for considerably longer.

There is also competition from the consoles, cheap media players and portable devices: instead of upgrading their PCs many home users buy those devices instead and leave the old PC for when they need to crank open a MS Office document. And having not spent money on new hardware, they resent paying for an upgrade to Windows (which traditionally the cost of was hidden in amongst the cost of that new PC).

[1] even games if you don't mind not playing the latest graphics fests, especially with the growing indy circuit[2] and the growth of mobile devices[3].

[2] which is supporting older hardware better than the big players

[3] because once you are optimised to the point where the game works on cheap tablets, that old PC will probably play a port of it quite well too

Sales have been plummeting across the PC business for a couple of years now, and Windows has reached a point of "good enough" leaving people little incentive to upgrade outside of HW replacement cycles.

And to paint a even bleaker picture you still have 30%+ of the worldwide Windows user-base still running XP, i.e. while PC-users on the Windows platform, they haven't actually paid for a OS license in over a decade.

The business of selling a licensed OS either shrink-wrapped or to OEMs is seemingly much less profitable than it used to be, and clearly not an area where future growth can be expected.

You can't blame Microsoft for trying to find something else to base future growth on.