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Comment by ctdonath | Hacker News Reader

data-fitting to just one data set is probably not enough model testing for making a prediction about a different social networking site.

I've watched the lifecycles of a LOT of social sites, from the beginning days of BBSs. Lots of "but this one is different" sites. They have all gone thru pretty much the same lifecycle ending in stagnation & abandonment around 7 years after starting. Some of them (CompuServe, AOL, MySpace, others which were just as big and even more forgotten) took the social tech world by storm, were poised to take over the world, and garnered lots of investment because they were so darned unstoppable. Most users got bored and moved on. Like Zaphod Beeblebrox, they're dead - they just haven't stopped moving yet. ALL OF THEM.

And Facebook shows absolutely no meaningful differentiation from that pattern.

(I want to say "now get off my lawn", but many may miss the intended humor.)

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Well Facebook is 10 years old next month and still growing. Thats a pretty meaningful differentiation from the pattern.

All the other social networks were growing right up until they didn't. They had a similar percentage of the online world.

Right, and Facebook will continue to grow until it doesn't, but that wasn't the point he was responding to:

> And Facebook shows absolutely no meaningful differentiation from that pattern.

The implication of this claim is that 10 years and growing is not meaningfully different from 7 years and stagnant.

You can look at Facebook as having launched independently in a number of different markets.

Initially it was Harvard (2003), then Ivys (March, 2004), then selective colleges, then all edus. It then tapped high-school students (September, 2005). It was opened to the general public in September 2006. Introduction to other countries also generally came later in the game, and FaceBook have had to compete with alternative networks, particularly in China and Russia. (Most data here from Wikipedia's Facebook article).

It's helpful to look at each of these as a somewhat independent social network.

We're hearing now about significant defections (or failures to join) in the < 25 market. Facebook's growth overall in the US peaked ~2010-2011. It's been growing outside the US, but that's a much less lucrative market for advertisers. Breaking out growth / user patterns by introduction point would be particularly interesting as I suspect this would model earlier social network growth more accurately.

Not really. By "around 7 years" I meant rough numbers with a very broad standard deviation. Facebook might be actually 10 years old from first run, but from general social awareness thereof to now is closer to 7, with a tipping point clearly having been reached between young users increasingly heading elsewhere and a growing sense by participants of "I don't want to be here but I have to". Yes, Facebook may have more staying power just because it has hit a billion users and is getting integrated into other devices, but I still see it matching the standard (if a bit elongated) pattern of social media site lifecycle. Those billion users are finding it's hard to be meaningfully social when lumped in with a billion others. Those FB-integrating devices can and will jettison FB on a moment's notice.

In 46 years I've seen a lot of "but this one is different" claims in a lot of subjects. No, it isn't in most cases. Google, yes, is different (but even they need be very careful). Facebook isn't; users are finding they can go elsewhere.

Plus they are continuing to attract a host of litigation from both individuals[1] and nations, alike.

[1] http://money.cnn.com/2014/01/03/technology/facebook-privacy-...

http://www.scribd.com/doc/195351255/Campbell-v-Facebook

I think the sheer number of people on Facebook is a meaningful differentiation.

Also the sheer level and scale of integration of Facebook with, well, basically life. Globally.

Also one has to keep in mind that the Internet itself is also constantly growing and evolving, and today it is nothing like in times of MySpace.

I get your humor (as I pull another PBR out of my personal cooler on my porch)

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