How is the x86 server business doomed? Do you think there will be an abrupt shift to ARM servers?
I wouldn't go so far as to say doomed, but it will be a shrinking business until is his a steady level.
Lenovo has done a pretty good job with the PC/workstation side of IBM that it bought a few years ago. There's no reason to think that they wouldn't do just as well with the servers. Just because IBM doesn't want to spend time for the small (to them) profit in servers doesn't mean that there isn't some real money to be made in that market.
Anecdotal observation: Many of my clients avoids using cloud services often cited reasons: cost and worries over ownership of data.
Based on the my observations my prediction is that traditional server vendors will keep on growing their business for many years to come but it's very likely that cloud services such as PaS/IaS will grow at faster pace ...