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Comment by euphemize | Hacker News Reader

Buffett won't have to pay a billion dollars. As he mentions in one of the articles linked, at the end:

"If you get to the Final Four with a perfect bracket, I may buy you out of your position," Buffett said. "I'll make you an offer you can't refuse."

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-buffett-basketball-bet...

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Haha, that would be so awesome. Presumably buffet is betting that you're going to take a lesser cash prize to avoid the risk of losing in the final 4. But at that point, if the buyout offer is huge but you are still +ev to stay in, you can probably turn the tables on him and get a big insurance company or investment bank(or a conglomerate of them) that has the bankroll to buy you out and see the matches play out.

Indeed. I have trouble imagining many people turning down whatever his offer would be at the final four though.

I wonder how much would he offer if you get to Final Four.

If you get to Final Four as an individual without FU money, then Buffet would probably offer a 50 million single payment and you would probably take it as it would still be a life changing event (see Kahneman's research).

However, if a syndicate such as the one in the link gets to the Final Four then Buffet would probably have to offer something closer to $125 million.

Something like offering $500,000,000 up front? There's no question I'd take the $25 mil offer, put it in a trust and seriously mess with the world (in a nice way).

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