ESR is making a completely valid point, and the underlying premise of his theory---that having software open to review can help---is only confirmed by this incident, not rejected.
Specifically: If GnuTLS were closed source, this problem would likely never be publicly discovered and disclosed.
So overall, ESR's theory is accurate and useful.
Note the word "almost" in the theory, which serves as a (completely valid) escape hatch (that you are mistakenly neglecting) for incidents like this---which fit the underlying premise, but are "corner cases" rather than "common cases."