If he's of a scientific or mathematical bent, he might find this an interesting read: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/25/opinion/sunday/how-long-ha... .

It could also be worth pointing out to him that although survival probabilities are useful measures when applied to large or even moderately-sized populations, they aren't necessarily that useful in trying to predict the outcome of a single event. "90% probability of survival" didn't mean that your friend was going to live, and "35% chance of survival" doesn't mean that he is going to die. What is certain, however, is that he is not done yet.