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The hijacking and crazy pilot theories are most plausible. Hijackera were simply irrational and forced them to go to Australia or something like that. Has happened before.

Or the pilot wanted to commit suicide in a bizarre manner. Or he had a psychotic episode.

All of these are more plausible than Rube Goldberg mechanical failures or James Bond terrorist plots.

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My problem though is that getting the plane onto the ground without anyone noticing (which is the only explanation I can think of that ties in the lack of the transponder to this as well as no followup sightings at, say, major airports).

That's a big question, and it suggests a level of clandestine resources I have trouble imagining being the case in Australia.

Australia is out of question. The plane would have been detected by the JORN [1].

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JORN

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