Comment by larrys | Hacker News Reader

Comment by larrys | Hacker News Reader

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"As recently as last night, we had high hopes that a meaningful reform effort would move forward this week."

What appears to have possibly happened here, by virtue of the fact that they appeared to have such high hopes, is that they let up on the battle and effort banking on what they were told by those they were in contact with. Who may have been mislead themselves.

I've seen this pattern before and in fact I've used it against adversaries (not in the patent area obviously). And it was used against me (which I'm guessing is where I learned it in the first place.)

You allow the other side to think they are going to win and so they end up easing up just a bit on the effort because in their mind they think they have pretty much either won the battle or have come real close to winning. (Isn't this also done in sports?)

I learned this lesson early on in business (out of college) when I lodged a complaint against the electric company for pulling the power to some machinery. The electric company immediately told me I was right! And that they would, in so many words, compensate me for the lost profits and the like (not that exactly but close enough it was a long time ago).

As time dragged on they still mildly assured me that they were going to do something. After perhaps 6 months past and I drew a line in the sand (all this dating is from memory btw.) At that point they finally just told me they weren't going to do anything and "well to bad sorry".

But by that point I had lost my initial anger and steam and just decided to forget about it.

Had they told me from day one (or week one) that they didn't agree I would have approached the situation much differently and mounted a different strategy. I didn't have a strategy because, well, I didn't think I needed one.

No one gave up. There was a "pencils down" compromise agreement between most parties as of yesterday. It was hard getting there, but it had support from almost everyone.

The pulled bill was the result of two different forces coming into play: Pro-IP monetization companies applying pressure and coalition splitting among the Democratic caucus.

The IP Monetization folks (Trolls, Universities, Bio, PHrMA, old line industry, and folks like Qualcomm) have been pushing really hard to weaken the legislation. There were substantial efforts to come to reasonable compromises, but those groups were never really happy.

What ultimately killed it, though, is that there were some important special interest groups (notably the trial lawyers) who opposed any kind of reform. If the bill would have been brought to the floor, it would have split the Democratic coalition and made a bunch of big-money donors mad.

When the opposition from the IP Monetization group mixed with the destabilizing political effect, the Senate Democratic leadership decided to kill it.

> Trolls, Universities, Bio, PHrMA, old line industry, and folks like Qualcomm)

That encompasses like 90% of the broader tech/engineering/R&D sector. If so much of the sector opposes reform, then reform won't be possible without getting more of these folks to switch sides. I think sensible reform is possible without prejudicing the interests of most of those folks. Its a matter of conveying that to them.

The anti-reform group is basically people who make a living licensing patents. Everyone else (Google, Cisco, Amazon... pretty much anyone doing anything over the internet, anyone using computers or networks, all three auto makers, the app developers, anyone in phones) mostly was pro reform.

What made the coalition for reform though, was the non tech industry. Retail, the Chamber of Commerce, banks, grocers, restauranteurs, hoteliers, gaming, insurance, venture capital... Basically everyone else. The pro-reform group was called the big tent for a reason.

This was about a smallish number of companies wanting to extract profits from other companies, and using the brokenness of the patent system to do so.

No one would have objected of there was a sense that the allegations were fair or well-founded. The problem is that courts would by statute try to uphold claims that were ridiculous.

Patent suits are the spam of the court system - spam you have to pay to delete.

The Partnership for American Innovation, which is basically an anti-reform group, includes Apple, Microsoft, IBM, DuPont, Pfizer, GE, and Ford. These are old-line American engineering companies, and make a living selling products, not licensing patents. They're synonymous with innovation (and STEM job creation) to your average Congresscritter. Reform is going to be difficult without getting more of these sorts of companies on the other side. The computer/internet folks have a very legitimate platform, but the coalition is too thin.

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