Comment by devbug | Hacker News Reader

Comment by devbug | Hacker News Reader

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Interesting.

I have caught myself, on more than one occasion, extrapolating our current economy and politics to similar end-states recently. I think such views are the more realistic--or perhaps just the pessimistic--flip-side of the post-scarcity economy. I have (internally) dubbed such economic systems "management economies" and have even gone as far as to write the openings of an allegorical novel that explores the consequences of such an economy.

In the novel, the ruling class (de facto by ownership) does nothing, and I mean nothing, but manage value. Instead they have fully automated the means of extraction and production with artificial intelligencies, leaving the non-ruling class to provide the market. Which they do so "willingly" because they are all marketers and are the only people that can be marketed to.[1] Thus, the non-ruling class is perpetually marketing products and services to itself all while the actual value is produced by artificial intelligencies, and the ruling class extracts value for itself.[2] Consequently, the unintentional side-effects of such an economy, where all value creation is abstracted, become increasingly visible, e.g. unsettled disputes between the "government" and contractors (the entire process automated) results in the road signage differing from the intended road signage, leading to pileups on highways where self-driving taxicabs crash into non-ruling class commuters. All of which is "solved" by an artificial intelligence which creates an app to tell commuters intended road signage.-

Just take the non-value-add parts of Wall Street, the general ineptitude of large businesses and the government, the hilariously out-of-touch culture of Silicon Valley, and the increasing availability of resources, products and services, and blend it together.

[1] It is likely to take me many chapters, and perhaps even a whole story, to prove this. So enjoy the tautological reasoning...

[2] I don't feel like logically arguing "why?" right now (12:28am) so please pretend I have.

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If anyone wants to discuss such topics in-depth, or wants to read a satirical novel about such topics, please do ask/tell.

I think that's a good literary caricature of a very real possibility of how a post-scarcity or even post-singularity economy might look. It would also be in the best interest of your ruling class to occasionally drop money from helicopters-- think potato salad guy but systemic, maybe guided by algorithms to stimulate increases in monetary velocity. Post-scarcity postmodern Keynesianism?

I could see Martian colonization and other difficult endeavors being undertaken by those who see this existence as empty and pointless and who actively desire a real challenge... possibly led and capitalized by factions of the ruling class who share this sentiment.

Wait... are we even talking about fiction here?!? :)

If on the other hand problems like fossil fuel depletion cause us to fail to reach anything like post-scarcity, I could see a scenario very much like William Gibson's Neuromancer. I think Gibson's "sprawl" 'verse is a world where the singularity failed to reach orbit so to speak. Going even more extreme I could see The Hunger Games -- tiny ultra-urban enclaves of super-rich surrounded by and served by feudal peasants. The Hunger Games (as opposed to Mad Max) is probably the most accurate picture of what a worst case scenario peak oil collapse would look like.

> I think that's a good literary caricature of a very real possibility of how a post-scarcity or even post-singularity economy might look.

Unfortunately so. "Scares" me too.

> It would also be in the best interest of your ruling class to occasionally drop money from helicopters-- think potato salad guy but systemic, maybe guided by algorithms to stimulate increases in monetary velocity. Post-scarcity postmodern Keynesianism?

I did not think of that, mainly because it does not make sense in the management economy that rules this fictional world. Ideally it would be completely self-sustaining and would likely continue on until an extinction event, however there is a "management debt" accrued as the result of business and government inefficiency and abstraction (see failed government-contractor negotiations). If left unchecked it would result in collapse of such a system because everything would become horribly fubar. Thus, to prevent the collapse of their system, the ruling class in interest of its own survival could indirectly (AI) or directly "pay off" the management debt by investing or creating (and importing selected individuals from the non-ruling class) ventures that fix the dilapidated systems or provided exploratory break through (space travel). This raises some from the non-ruling class to the ruling class in the process, of course, but is of little impact. Additionally, potato salad ventures could be used in a lottery system to provide hope to the non-ruling class, or completely replace the previous method of management debt checking, allowing the system to operate for much longer than it normally would... until it suddenly collapses under the insane amounts of inefficiency it introduces.

(Interestingly, this explains large corporate behaviour.)

> I could see Martian colonization and other difficult endeavours being undertaken by those who see this existence as empty and pointless and who actively desire a real challenge... possibly led and capitalized by factions of the ruling class who share this sentiment.

Every good story needs rebellious outcasts and non-ironic hope for humanity. A musky settlement on Mars like you describe is just perfect. :)

> Wait... are we even talking about fiction here?!? :)

The more of the world I experience, either through my own eyes or vicariously through the wisdom of others, leads me to closer to the conclusion that no, in fact we are writing humanity's (short?) biography.

> If on the other hand problems like fossil fuel depletion cause us to fail to reach anything like post-scarcity, I could see a scenario very much like William Gibson's Neuromancer. I think Gibson's "sprawl" 'verse is a world where the singularity failed to reach orbit so to speak. Going even more extreme I could see The Hunger Games -- tiny ultra-urban enclaves of super-rich surrounded by and served by feudal peasants. The Hunger Games (as opposed to Mad Max) is probably the most accurate picture of what a worst case scenario peak oil collapse would look like.

I think we may see both scenarios, and a revival of the us versus them mentality that dominated the Cold War. :(

I would absolutely read such a novel. It sounds fantastic.

Thank you.

Every supportive comment leads me closer to finishing it, knowing it would be enjoyed.

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