On top of it, people get compromised all the time. Its trivial for a virus to nab your saved browser passwords. Or someone sends you a phishing link and you happily type in your credentials. It looked official, right?
All of this is invisible to the end user, typically. From the IT side of things these credentials are used for all sorts of things like authenticating with smtp to use our mail server to send spam, log into ftp sites to host malware, etc, etc. Then the end user angrily walks up to IT saying, "Everyone is saying my emails are spam. Why do you guys suck so much??!!"
Forcing password rotation helps with this because there's a chance the password that got leaked is or will soon be retired. It also helps in scenarios when employees give their passwords out to other employees and then one of them gets fired and starts fucking with the system using someone else's credentials.
In short, a lot of these polities exist because people are stupid. Don't blame those of us trying to mitigate the damage. That said, you don't need a 30 day expiration. I find 120-180 days works well enough. You don't need complexity turned on as much as you need a sane minimum length. I'd rather train people to use "mydogsnameisAlbert" than "Password1"
In other words, they will resort to using less-secure passwords. The notion that rotating passwords improves security is little more than a cargo-cult.
I think it's obvious that expiring passwords increases security to some degree. It's also clear that user reactions will induce people to reduce the security of those passwords. The password expiry interval you choose (potentially as long as the duration of the system's existence) depends on your threat model, really. Security is hard and often application-specific.
Thus, I find myself writing new poems all the time. Which is actually great because they are fun to make and easy to remember. But yeah if I still used that one (something I wrote in 2008) I'd be screwed. There's no way that's safe now.
What really drives me insane are services that limit the number of characters you can have for your password. Holy criminy that's dumb.
However if someone steals a whole password database with a million passwords, chances are they just automate the login attempts and subsequent nefarious actions. They might not try to figure out anyone's naive password scheme if they get thousands of successful logins the easy way!?
I'm saying this because I've heard your reasoning before, and of course I've been staring at the keyboard when trying to change one of my passwords, wondering just how clever I need to be right there.
8 characters or longer
lowercase
uppercase
number
random symbol
As far as I am concerned if I want to make my password jumping I should be able too, forcing someone to make a password they will never remember leads to several issues.
1. A password cracker knows exactly what to ignore which such requirements (obviously his 4 letter word dictionary is useless in this case).
2. People have trouble remembering them, so they typically write them down somewhere (a even bigger issue).
3. It's security through obscurity.