Is there an explanation for how adding these dams lowers water levels?
That isn't just speculation, the Mediterranean actually was a dry sea, when the Strait closed 5.9 million years ago: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mediterranean_Sea#Geology
A better question is "how quickly would the Mediterranean dry up if you dam Gibraltar?" A thousand years? More? Would you have to dam every river that drains into the Mediterranean?
This has happened before. From 5.9 to 5.33 million years ago, the strait was closed and the entire sea evaporated. It will happen again, when the northward moving African plate collides with Europe.