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Yeah, this is a dumb bet.

"Snapchat has peaked" or "snapchat is doomed" are each consistent with independence in a lot of cases. "Snapchat can IPO" as well as "undefined" are also.

The only case I can see for "Snapchat in a quick sale" is if there were a strong #2 from FB, Twitter, Google, Microsoft and another of them bought Snapchat as the competitor. As it is, I don't think it's a direct competitor to Twitter/FB core business, so they're not forced to buy it right now.

Add me to that bet (I am betting that Snapchat stay's independent), so another $1,000. @Mandatum whats your email, let's put the money into a Bitcoin escrow, I'll set everything up, to be payed on February 27, 2015.

If @Mandatum won't go 2k deep I'll split however far he's willing to go 50/50 with you. :)

Betting is a tax on bullshit. Good on you, 'arry.

silly question, is there a (known) web site for making (small) bets among individuals, keeping escrow, doing odds etc? I thought about this as a 'startup' idea but I'm scared of the laws, esp. US law

Not to my knowledge but I really wish there was! I would surely be a customer.

I agree that US law could be an impediment to building such a thing.