Upgrade cycles shouldn't affect sales growth unless the upgrade cycle has gotten longer since the iPad's introduction.
Also don't forget to consider that when the time to upgrade an iPad comes up, you can decide not to upgrade it and wait until it's completely dead or whatever. With the iPhone, you can usually sell your 2 year old phone for at least $200 and use that for a free upgrade to the next model. Since most people are gonna keep their plans for that time frame anyway, it's stupid not to use the subsidy.
I know many developers wish the thing would die since it's the only A5 and non-Retina iPad.